Imagine that you’re playing Russian Roulette with your arch-nemesis Bob. The gun that you’re using has a standard circular barrel, containing six chambers. Bob places two bullets in consecutive chambers and spins the barrel. He puts the gun to his head and pulls the trigger. He gets lucky.
Now it’s your turn. Before you pull the trigger, you can spin the barrel or you can leave the arrangement as it is. Does your decision affect your chances? What would you do?
You would want to spin it, I think. By doing that, you have a 2/6 (33%) chance of getting a bullet. If you don’t spin it, the empty chamber Bob used is out of play, making it a 2/5 (40%) chance that you pick a bullet.
Reblogged from Oh Hey There.
September 25, 2009, 12:01am
